Everything is a Bet

Annie Duke is a psychology PhD turned Poker queen turned author of Thinking in Bets- see her 90 minute Google interview at Youtube

But I'll summarise for you. Everything is a Bet. And the sooner you internalise that, the better.

We don't know Jack, it's all just estimates, which amount to bets.

For example, your car's speedometer- do you know how accurate it is? how accurate it has to be, by law? It shocked me.

So to make any sense of estimates, we must talk the language of bets.

Poker players know that your odds change with what you learn as the game progresses.

Reverend Bayes turned that mathematical, but the principle is not so hard.

It just acknowledges that the odds change with every morsel of information you learn as you go.

So to reduce uncertainty (get better odds of success), you should carry out business experiments focused on reducing the odds at least cost.

Many business experiments can use just the resources you have easily at hand (your staff and sometimes their routine contact with customers and suppliers). They can be quick, decisive and invisible to your competitors.

With preparation, you can do this yourself. AcuteIP offers a set of services to make it easy, from workshops and technical services to managing the whole exercise.

Contact Graham.Harris at AcuteIP.com to explore possibilities.

There is a printable PDF infographic depicting AcuteIP.com's approach to using the Wisdom of your Crowd

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We don't know Jack, it's all just estimates, which amount to bets.

So to make any sense of estimates, we must talk the language of bets.