Annie Duke is a psychology PhD turned Poker queen turned author of Thinking in Bets- see her 90 minute Google interview at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYNsSeYjkp4
But I'll summarise for you. Everything is a Bet. And the sooner you internalise that, the better.
We don't know Jack, it's all just estimates, which amount to bets.
For example, your car's speedometer- do you know how accurate it is? how accurate it has to be, by law? It shocked me.
So to make any sense of estimates, we must talk the language of bets.
Bookmakers have conditioned us to think of bets as win or lose, and the background of pedigree, training etc too complex to be knowable.
But poker players know that reality is more complex. The odds change with what you learn as the game progresses.
Reverend Bayes turned that mathematical, but the principle is not so hard. The odds change with what you learn. Choose the business experiments that reduce the odds at least cost.
With preparation, you can do this yourself. AcuteIP.com offers a set of services to make it easy, from workshops and technical services to managing the whole exercise.
Contact Graham.Harris at AcuteIP.com to explore possibilities.
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A presentation I delivered to the Enterprise & Solution Architecture meetup group in Auckland. IT Architects have to estimate many things at an early stage of development, when the cone of uncertainty is widest. This presentation suggests ways in which architects and other early-stage estimators can estimate both cost and value, systematically reducing the uncertainty.
Knowledge comes by taking things apart. But wisdom comes by putting things together. - John A. Morrison